The Republican party is being torn apart over how to proceed on Obamacare. Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and the young guns of the GOP want to do everything possible to defund Obamacare even if it leads to a government shutdown Sept 30th. Old school republicans like Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn, want to repeal Obamacare next year and thus aren't willing to risk a government shutdown. The thinking being that while polls show only 42% of American's approve of the Obamacare law, only 38% approve of defunding it. Old school GOPers believe they can win the 2014 elections based on American's dislike for Obamacare. The only thing that would prevent these wins is a government shutdown caused over the defunding battle. The Republicans need to pick up 6 seats in the Senate to be able to control both sides of Congress and then they can stop Obamacare without a fight. Here's 8 seats they should win.
North Carolina Kay Hagan hitched her wagon to Obama's in 2008. The tide has turned for the President and voters will look at her the same way they look at the President. Just nominate a safe conservative who doesn't get too deep into social issues and you win.
That would shock a lot of liberals. Gov Bob McDonnell is still involved in a scandal over receiving $140,000 in gifts from a donor. He has returned the gifts since the news became public, but is still under investigation. Despite that, MSNBC still has the Republican in a new poll today with a job approval rating in the mid 50's. That's down from his high in May of 61% but he would beat Terry McAuliffe if he was allowed to run again for Governor. Mark Warner the current Senator, supported the President on striking Syria, which ticked off the majority of his liberal backers and then he didn't have the courage to even vote up or down on Obamacare which ticked everyone off! He's beatable.
Is a pretty conservative state and they love their oil! So they were shocked when their new Senator Mark Begich won election as a moderate and then voted to impliment carbon taxes. His people are trying to tell Alaskans he doesn't support Carbon taxes despite his voting record. Begich had a lead on Sept 2nd over Rep Lt Gov Treadwell. But Treadwell hadn't even launched his campaign till 10 days later. Begich only has a 42% job approval rating so he should be defeated next year.
Mary Landrieu had one of the least impressive wins of 2008. In a year that Dems were winning landslides with Barack Obama around the country she limped into her 3rd term with 52% of the vote. And Romney won Louisiana in 2012 by 17%! She is one of the most conservative Dems in the senate supporting Keystone pipeline, and the elimination of estate taxes. She was even against Obamacare until page 432 of the bill was rewritten to give Louisiana 100 million dollars. So her vote was bought as ABC News reported and now that Obamacare is tanking the economy, that seems like Louisiana got the worst of that deal. Her job approval is down to 46% and she too is now saddled with Obamacare.
Should be a give-me! Most expected Mike Huckabee to crush Mark Pryor in 2008. Huckabee decided to not run even though his Presidential run was over. Then Tom Formicola shocked Republican's by deciding to not run either. The GOP didn't even run a candidate against him. He beat out a Green Party candidate. The overwhelming amount of his campaign donations come from Lawyers, and Lobbyists. Pryor attempted to link Republicans with him when they voted to accept federal funding to expand medicaid in conjunction with Obamacare. "It really affirms that the vote I cast ... was the right vote, because they joined me in that. When the chips were down, the Republicans in Arkansas joined me". That point was blown to smithereens in an Arkansas Times article entitled "The Politics Of Nonsense". Tom Cotton is already ahead in the polls and should pull away as Obamacare is implemented.
Tim Johnson is a hell of a campaigner. He may of hung onto his seat for a 4th term despite marching shoulder to shoulder with Obama on everything. Sadly his battle with cancer seems to be forcing him to retire which he announced earlier this year. In the last poll I saw in September the Republican Rounds has a 14 point lead over the Democrat Weiland. Weiland is trying to distance himself from the Dem's saying he's not going to be Harry Reid's guy, but as this article says "it doesn't look like he's going to be anyone else's either".
Jay Rockefeller is retiring after what seems like a million years as West Virgina's most popular Democrat. He was the Governor in the 70's & 80's and their Senator since 1986. They loved that guy. They don't seem to love the person trying to replace him. Dem Natalie Tennent is down 14 points right now to GOP candidate Shelly Capiato.
Should be another give me state. Dem Max Baucus is retiring. Romney beat Obama by 14 points in 2012! Last month the expected Democrat nominee announced he would not run. This was just one month after the original expected nominee/former governor shocked the party by announcing he would not run. The state leans right and the Dems are in disarray there. Champ Edmunds is currently the only person running in Montana and he is a Republican. He says he will withdraw if Steve Daines enters the race. Daines is a popular house member who is picking up the pace on fundraising this quarter.
If 6 of those 8 win then the Senate is out of Obama's control. Even if the GOP blows replacing Saxby Chambliss in Georgia they should still have enough to win control of the Senate. If the government shuts down however and the GOP is always looked at as the party that shuts down the government, even though in this case it would procedurally be Harry Reid shutting it down, the polls indicate that they would be more angry over that, than the disaster of Obamacare. Still I would say politically it is worth it to shut it down if there was a potential to actually repeal Obamacare. There isn't. There doesn't even seem to be the potential for defunding it as Ted Cruz was asked by Chris Wallace what the end game was. He didn't say to defund it or stop it. He said send it back to the house to start passing smaller Continuing Resolutions to reopen the government piece by piece. The obvious hope is that somehow house would never send over the fund Obamacare part. The problem is it's still a law. So American's are being hurt by it whether it's funded or not. As an American you are required by law to have healthcare insurance that meets certain requirements. If the law isn't funded all that happens is tax payers don't have the extra burden of sending out navigators and exchanges. But the individual is still on their own to find a policy that meets those minimums. The only real solution is repeal Obamacare and the only way that is possible is to get both sides of congress under Republican control and then put pressure on the Dems who have 2016 elections like Mikulski in Maryland, Bennett in Colorado and Wyden in Oregon to come along with what the nation wants and repeal this law.