The GOP seems split over Obamacare. Or do they? On one side you have the Tea Party favs Mike Lee & Ted Cruz. On the other side are the classics like John Cornyn. Do they really see the world that different? I don't think so. Heritage Foundation lists them all in the same group as really conservative based on their voting records. Mike & Ted's Excellent Adventure is based on doing anything possible to stop Obamacare from hurting Americans. The rest of the GOP agree. The question that divides them is "what is possible".
Mike & Ted believe that if they can get enough people to call and write their Democrat Senators they would have to cave to the pressure and vote to defund Obamacare. No one else believes that. The reason they don't believe that is because there are 20 Democrats up for reelection in 2014. 12 feel like they can't be beat, and 8 feel like they would be hurt by voting against Obamacare. I still believe those 8 will be beat next year and talk about that here. Could they be shocked and lose next year? Of course! But to influence their vote in 2013 you would have to give them reason to believe they would lose in 2014 for voting in Obamacare. And the polls aren't doing that. The Senators could get a trillion calls and letters, but politicians trust polls more than their eyes. And usually the polls are right.
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker saw the polls were with him in his fight against the unions. There were hundreds of thousands very angry liberals protesting him all around his state. Phone, e-mail and mail campaigns to blitz his office around the clock. But he told the people what he wanted to do, then the pollsters asked how the voters felt, and he moved forward. Almost 1 million people signed the recall petition. But that was just about everyone who was against him, because he won the recall election with 1.3 million to 1.1 million votes.
Most of the GOP trusts the polls too. Those polls say that Obamacare is very unpopular. But defunding it is even more unpopular. Americans would rather be hurt by Obamacare than see the government shut down. You and everyone you know may feel differently, but then again you and everyone you know probably didn't vote for Obama/Biden in 2012.
Now if the Senate felt like it could get enough votes to defund Obamacare it still wouldn't stop anything because the President would veto that. In order to override his veto they would then have to convince 2/3rds of each house to vote against the President. That means convincing 55 Democrats in the house and 20 Senate Dems to vote against Obamacare. It is inconceivable that that could happen in the next year.
So the definition of "possible" to the rest of the GOP is use Obamacare to sink as many Democrats in 2014 as possible. To add to the burden of defending Obamacare, the House is expected to add the Vitter Amendment to their bill this weekend after defunding Obamacare is stripped out by the Senate.The amendment says the President and the Dems get everything they have asked for. All they have to do is forfeit the Obamacare exemption they provided for themselves and staffs. It's hard to imagine any of them going on the record to vote against Obamacare for themselves while at the same time voting it for the rest of us. There may be some pain as certain staff members leave. Maybe enough pain to win a few votes in the future to repeal Obamacare. Currently CNN and other media outlets are trying to make it appear as though Congress didn't get an exemption, but here is the actual Reuters news report from Aug 7th.
Headline: Congress wins relief on Obamacare health plan subsidies. Nancy Pelosi said this "would have caused unintended collateral damage on congressional staff, causing many to leave for the private sector. They are a tremendous intellectual resource, people who could, shall we say, be better compensated financially outside of government".
All Republicans are unified in wanting to stop Obamacare. The problem is how to do it. I'm happy to see the passion but worried about the division. You don't win a war because you're more angry then your enemy. You usually don't even win a fight just because you have more fight in you. You need a plan. And it has to be a plan you can follow no matter what. Because like Mike Tyson explained "everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth". Repealling Obamacare will be a massive effort that will take years to accomplish. The GOP will take bunches of punches to the mouth in the process. The Democrats had to take their punches from us and stick together to get Obamacare passed. It failed as Hillarycare in 1993, It failed as Harrycare when Harry Truman tried to sneek it in as part of his "Fair Deal" in 1947. So they can stop saying it's a conservative idea put out by the Heritage Foundation and Romney lead the way.
When you're working as a team, everyone needs to see, understand, and believe in that plan. Liberals saw and believed their plan that universal health care was right. Conservatives need to see and understand why it's bad. Then they need to see and understand the plan to repeal it, much like liberals saw and believed the plan to pass it. The plan that I see is win back the Senate in 2014 and keep the House. Then Congress can really start to affect change on the spending. That should give them momentum heading towards a massive fight for the White House in 2016. Currently most American's are against Hillarycare. She will only hope to expand it in 2016 while our candidate will be to repeal it. We should win the White House on that issue alone. But if we're divided, conservatives will blow their chance at the Senate next year and hurt their chances for the White House in 2016.